Projections of future job demand are an important metric for students, job seekers, and career changers to consider. The region is better off when both workers are able to secure high demand, high wage jobs, and employers are able to fill their open positions with qualified candidates. The Occupational Outlook for the Kentuckiana Region presents details on local job needs over the next ten years, organized by career cluster.
There are two factors that lead to future demand for a particular occupation: job growth and replacement jobs. Job growth is the demand that arises from an increase in the total number of jobs in a particular occupation over time. Job growth can be negative, however, because sometimes the total number of jobs for a particular occupation is expected to decline over time. Replacement jobs are the demand that arises because someone permanently leaves an occupation, because they retired or switched careers, and that position needs to be refilled. Collectively, job growth and replacement jobs sum to total projected job openings.
Projections of job growth are important to consider separately from total openings. Although job change is just one component of future job demand, positive job growth signals the need for a particular occupation because of sustained economic activity.
Health science, STEM, and IT occupations have the largest projected job growth in the region. As the baby boomer generation ages, and people live longer, the need for health science positions will continue to grow. In addition, jobs in health sciences are less vulnerable to automation. The continued integration of advanced technology and machinery into workflows will stimulate demand for STEM and IT workers. Demand in these occupations is driven by trends in the nation’s economic activity, rather than people leaving those careers. Jobs in health science, STEM, and IT also have some of the region’s highest wages, making them particularly attractive to pursue.
Adding the need for replacement jobs to projected job growth leads to the total number of projected job openings. Many of the occupations with the highest projected job openings are low-wage jobs, as people tend to not stay employed in those jobs for very long before switching careers.
When the focus is limited to occupations in the top half of the region’s wage distribution, jobs in business, transportation/logistics, and manufacturing have the largest projected job openings in the next 10 years. These occupations employ the largest number of current workers, so demand for workers in these fields is high.
For data on detailed occupations, the Occupational Outlook for the Kentuckiana Region provides projections of total job openings, job growth, and replacement needs organized by career cluster. You can also explore interactively below.
